Rates rebound as a Hormuz reopening deal nears and Shanghai sets a record

Rates found a floor this week, and for the first time since the spring there is a credible path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Neither is settled. The August rate increases mostly failed to stick, and the Hormuz deal is drafted but unsigned — so the practical advice has not changed yet, even if the direction of travel finally has.

Container rates this week

Drewry's World Container Index rose 1% to $4,297 per FEU, rebounding after three consecutive weekly declines. Carriers went in hard on 1 August with transpacific general rate increases of $2,000–$3,000 per FEU, and the modest lift in the composite is what survived of them. Reporting through the week describes the increase as largely unsuccessful — importers rolled early-August bookings rather than pay, and effective transacted rates on Asia–US West Coast were quoted well below published levels.

Two notes on what we have not printed. An official SCFI composite for this week could not be confirmed from a primary source, so we have omitted a hard points figure rather than quote a secondary feed. And exact Freightos lane prints for the 5 August reading were not verified at the time of writing — the direction (slightly softer on the transpacific) is well reported, the precise values are not.

The structural story behind the failed hike is overcapacity. Every general rate increase this year has faded faster than the one before, and with peak season judged to have passed and front-loading unwinding, carriers are relying on blank sailings rather than pricing power. On the tariff side, the picture settled: the 10% Section 122 duty expired on 24 July and a Section 301 two-tier regime of 10% and 12.5% took effect the same instant, leaving no gap and some lines around 2.5 points higher than before.

For Gulf-bound cargo, CMA CGM applied a peak-season surcharge of $1,500 per container on North Europe to Middle East and Red Sea trades effective 1 August, on top of existing war-risk and fuel charges. That is the real cost line to plan around while the strait stays shut.

Industry headlines

A Hormuz reopening deal is drafted — and unsigned. This is the week's significant development. Iranian and Omani negotiators finalised a draft agreement for a temporary shipping corridor, reported as a 60-day arrangement, with vessels entering the Gulf via an Iranian-controlled route and exiting via an Omani one. US officials talked up an imminent deal — the Treasury Secretary predicted one "by midweek" on 4 August, and President Trump said a reopening could come within days. As of writing it awaits final approval from Iran's leadership, and Iran's deputy foreign minister cautioned that an agreement would not automatically reopen the waterway. Treat it as a real off-ramp, not a done deal.

Attacks continued on the Omani exit route. Two ships using the Omani route were struck after 1 August. The bulk carrier Minoan Pioneer was hit in the engine room on 3 August, causing a blackout, with a third engineer reported missing; further explosions were reported near tankers northeast of Khasab and southeast of Kumzar on 2 and 5 August. US Central Command reported redirecting 45 merchant ships. The corridor being negotiated is the same water where vessels are being hit.

The Houthis hit an eighth Saudi tanker. On 5 August the Houthis claimed a ballistic-missile attack on the Saudi tanker Wafa off Yanbu — by their own count the eighth Saudi tanker targeted since the blockade began in late July. Saudi Arabia is reported to be forming a naval coalition in response. There is no ceasefire on this front.

Carrier earnings land next week. Maersk reports second-quarter results on 13 August, with Hapag-Lloyd expected around the middle of the month and ZIM on 19 August without a call. Maersk raised full-year guidance sharply in late June on the back of tight capacity, so the read-across on how much of this year's earnings strength is disruption-driven arrives shortly.

Port congestion

The defining data point this week is that record volume and worsening delay are happening together. Shanghai handled 203,881 TEU in a single day on 1 August, an all-time record, while berth delays across its major terminals ran 4.4 to 8 days. Volume is being forced through congested terminals; the congestion is not clearing.

More than 2m TEU of capacity is waiting across North Asia, concentrated around Shanghai and Ningbo. Jeddah has moved from congested to actively managed: MSC has imposed a $500 per TEU congestion surcharge and is allowing free rerouting to King Abdullah Port, CMA CGM has cut its India–Middle East service to fortnightly, and a new Hapag-Lloyd and Global Feeder Red Sea service made its first Mundra call on 6 August. Jebel Ali's terminals are operating normally, per Inchcape's 3 August advisory, though no berth-wait figure was published. Note that Kuehne+Nagel has not yet issued its weekly port update for the period, so several European waiting times this week are unavailable rather than unchanged.

Gulf & UAE trade

Transits are up from a very low base. Lloyd's List Intelligence counted 84 Hormuz transits over 27 July to 2 August, up from 45 the prior week, with non-Iranian traffic nearly doubling and gas carriers and containerships resuming trackable passages after a hiatus. Set against a pre-crisis norm of roughly 73 to 90 a day, this is a thaw at the margin, not a reopening — one tracker recorded just two transits on 2 August, and more than 550 vessels remain stranded.

Explosions near Jebel Ali did not stop the port. On 5 August a series of explosions was reported in the Jebel Ali industrial area, with a fire near a petroleum facility detected by satellite. DP World confirmed no damage to port infrastructure and normal terminal operations, though incoming vessel calls dipped as lines adjusted routing. No link to hostile action has been established. The practical takeaway is that Jebel Ali stayed open through it.

The east-coast bypass keeps building. DP World's agreement to develop the two Fujairah terminals was reaffirmed in fresh coverage on 6 August, and regional feeder rerouting via Fujairah and Khor Fakkan continued to expand, including new India–Pakistan–Oman and Red Sea links. Even if the strait reopens on a 60-day arrangement, this capacity is being built for the decade, not the quarter.

War risk still prices the Gulf. Hull war-risk cover for Gulf transits has been quoted as high as 10% of vessel value against roughly 0.25% before the crisis. Nothing this week changed that, and a drafted-but-unsigned corridor deal will not change it until it is in force and tested.

The Nautica view

The temptation this week is to trade the headline. Do not. A drafted Hormuz corridor is genuinely the best news since the spring, but it is unsigned, Iran has said it would not automatically reopen the waterway, and ships are still being struck on the exact Omani route the deal describes. Keep booking through Khor Fakkan and Fujairah, keep war risk in the price, and keep Jeddah out of the plan unless the berth is confirmed. On the mainlines, the failed August hike tells you what you need to know about pricing power — there is no case for paying up on Asia–Europe or the transpacific while effective rates sit below published ones. If the corridor is ratified and holds for a fortnight, that is when routing changes. We will be watching it daily, and quoting both ways in the meantime.

Sources: Drewry WCI (6 August), Freight Right and US Transport News (week of 3 August), Xeneta, Lloyd's List Intelligence (5 August), CNN, Fortune, PBS NewsHour, Washington Times, Axios, NBC, Euronews, Palaemon Maritime, Splash247, Linerlytica, GoComet, Trans-Border Global Freight, Inchcape (3 August), DP World, Cyprus Shipping News (6 August), USTR/Section 301 guidance, Maersk and ZIM investor relations. Every figure is dated to its source; where a print was unavailable or unverified (the SCFI composite, exact Freightos lane values, several European port waits) that is stated rather than estimated.