The market kept easing this week even as the Gulf stayed locked. Spot rates fell for a third straight week on the main east–west trades, the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, and the newest schedule-reliability data confirmed on-time performance is sliding, not recovering. The one moving part in our favour is capacity: the UAE east coast is absorbing more diverted cargo than ever.
Container rates this week
Drewry's World Container Index fell 3% for a third consecutive week, with the composite now at $4,255 per FEU and every headhaul lane soft. Drewry's commentary points to carriers "actively managing capacity through blank sailings" against softening demand and a slowdown in front-loading. Freightos data dated 29 July shows the same picture, with the Asia–US West Coast lane down 12% on the week.
| Index / lane | Reading | Week-on-week |
|---|---|---|
| Drewry WCI composite (30 Jul) | $4,255 / FEU | −3% |
| Drewry Shanghai–Rotterdam (30 Jul) | $4,667 / FEU | −3% |
| Drewry Shanghai–Los Angeles (30 Jul) | $5,739 / FEU | −2% |
| Drewry Shanghai–Genoa (30 Jul) | $5,630 / FEU | −6% |
| Freightos FBX Asia–US West Coast (29 Jul) | $6,212 / FEU | −12% |
An official SCFI composite reading was not available for this week's Friday print at the time of writing, so we have left it out rather than quote an unconfirmed number. The one counter-current worth flagging is the transpacific: carriers filed general rate increases of $2,000–$3,000 per FEU for 1 August, and spot readings on the lane began ticking up at the very end of the week as shippers moved to beat them — the first thing resembling upward pressure in a month. Whether it holds is next week's question.
The Gulf stays the outlier on price. With Hormuz shut, Asia-origin headhaul prints into Jebel Ali are scarce, but the cost of moving a box into the region now runs through the east-coast feeder network and a war-risk bill that has not come down — hull cover for Gulf transits is still being quoted as high as 10% of vessel value, per AGBI, against roughly 0.25% before the crisis.
Industry headlines
Schedule reliability slips to 62.6%. Sea-Intelligence's latest Global Liner Performance report, published 27 July, put June global on-time performance at 62.6% — down 1.9 points on the month and 4.7 points on the year, the second-weakest reading of 2026. This supersedes May's 64.7%, and the direction is the point: reliability is deteriorating while rates fall, an unusual pairing that tells you disruption, not demand, is driving the schedule.
The Hormuz standoff hardens. June's US–Iran memorandum has fully collapsed. US airstrikes hit IRGC targets including the Port of Sirik on 29 July, and by week's end the LNG carrier Gaslog Shanghai was disabled by a projectile leaving the strait. Lloyd's List Intelligence counts roughly 45 transits over the week against a pre-crisis norm near 90, with a fresh cohort of around 65 ships — vessels that had entered the Gulf during June's brief calm — now trapped inside.
The Houthi blockade of Saudi Arabia holds. There is no ceasefire. A Houthi missile targeted a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea on 28 July, and traffic through Bab el-Mandeb slowed further. Container lines are, for now, holding their Red Sea routings rather than pulling them, per Lloyd's List — but the second front on the Saudi approaches is not closing.
ZIM pulls its earnings call. ZIM said on 29 July it will report second-quarter results on 19 August without an earnings call, citing the pending $4.2bn Hapag-Lloyd takeover still in regulatory review. A small signal that the deal is live and management is in a quiet period around it.
Port congestion
The headline is that reliability fell (above) even as several hubs held steady, because the strain has moved to the Gulf and to weather-hit lanes. Figures below are Kuehne+Nagel's 22–28 July port updates and berthing trackers; note that K+N published no numeric waiting time for Jebel Ali, Jeddah, Shanghai or Ningbo this week, so those are described qualitatively.
| Port | Status / wait | Trend | Source date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fujairah / Khor Fakkan | Container ops running; 4+ week wait for breakbulk, bulk and RoRo | Jammed | late Jul |
| Antwerp | ~2.25 days berth wait; yard up to 86% | Elevated | 22–28 Jul |
| Hamburg | ~1.7 days; labour shortages at CTA | Elevated | 22–28 Jul |
| Singapore | ~1.22 days; yard ~80% | Steady | 22–28 Jul |
| Port Klang | ~1.5 days; yard 80–85% | Steady | 22–28 Jul |
| Barcelona | ~2.5 days; heatwave and rail suspension flagged | Elevated | 22–28 Jul |
The routing message stays Jeddah and the Gulf east coast. Jeddah remains severely congested as diverted and land-bridge cargo piles in, and carriers continue to omit it in favour of King Abdullah Port. On the UAE east coast, Hormuz-diversion volumes have plateaued at roughly four times the normal baseline, and the knock-on reaches India — box dwell at Navi Mumbai has climbed to around 21 days. The berths are working; it is the yard and the onward feeder leg that are tight.
Gulf & UAE trade
Khor Fakkan hits record diverted volumes. Gulftainer's Khor Fakkan terminal is now handling around 50,000 containers a week, up from a normal level closer to 2,000, with all six berths committed to boxes and overflow pushed to anchorage — where berthing delays of one to three weeks have appeared. This is the east-coast bypass working at full stretch, and it is the single most important fact for anyone routing cargo into the UAE right now.
DP World's Fujairah terminal terms are confirmed. Following the 22 July signing, full terms of the 50-year Fujairah concession were published: the Al Rugaylat container and multipurpose terminal (up to 2.5m TEU a year, plus 1.7m tonnes of general cargo) and the Dibba general-cargo terminal (up to 3.6m tonnes). Together they lift DP World's UAE container capacity from about 19.4m to 22m TEU, built in phases over roughly 24–30 months, and sited outside the strait. The direction of travel is unambiguous.
War-risk cover is not softening. Additional hull war-risk premiums for Gulf transits are still being quoted as high as 10% of vessel value — on a $100m ship, close to $10m for a single voyage. Cover remains available and the market is well supplied with capacity, but pricing is fragmented as loss-hit underwriters push rates up, per AGBI. Build it into the quote.
A record trade base underneath it all. For context on how much this economy is absorbing: the UAE's non-oil foreign trade hit a record AED1.937tn (about $527bn) in the first half of 2026, up 13.1% year on year, per the Dubai Media Office. The disruption is real, but it is landing on a trade engine that is still growing.
The Nautica view
Three weeks of falling rates on the mainlines and a still-shut strait is not a contradiction — it is the shape of this market. Out of Asia into Europe and the US, there is no reason to chase space or pre-empt the 1 August hikes; demand is soft and every increase this year has faded faster than the last. Into the Gulf, the calculus is the reverse: the east-coast corridor is running at record load, anchorage waits are creeping back, and war risk is still a real line on the invoice. Book east-coast space early, keep Jeddah out of the plan unless a berth is confirmed, and treat the transpacific bump at week's end as something to watch, not bank on. We are quoting these routings daily; if a booking depends on Hormuz reopening, keep a feeder-based alternative in hand.
Sources: Drewry WCI (30 July) and weekly commentary, Freightos (29 July), Sea-Intelligence Global Liner Performance issue 179 (27 July), Lloyd's List and Lloyd's List Intelligence, AGBI, Kuehne+Nagel port updates (22–28 July), DP World newsroom, Dubai Media Office/the National, Palaemon Maritime, gCaptain. Every figure is dated to its source; where this week's print was unavailable (the SCFI composite, several Gulf-port waiting times) that is noted in the text rather than estimated.