Two things are true at once this week. On the mainline east–west trades, spot rates eased for a second straight week as the peak season cools. On our doorstep, the Gulf disruption widened rather than settled: Yemen's Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, the Strait of Hormuz stayed effectively shut, and the market's answer — new capacity on the UAE's east coast — took concrete form.
Container rates this week
The peak has passed. The SCFI fell for a second week and Freightos data through 22 July showed every major east–west lane easing, even after the mid-July general rate increases were announced — the increases did not stick. Drewry's own commentary a week earlier noted the "strong upwards momentum" of recent months was beginning to subside, and it guided to roughly stable rates near term, with transpacific blank sailings scheduled to keep capacity tight into early August.
| Index / lane | Reading | Week-on-week |
|---|---|---|
| SCFI composite (17 Jul) | 3,080.31 pts | −3.3% |
| Drewry WCI composite (16 Jul, latest published) | $4,547 / FEU | −2% |
| Freightos FBX Asia–US West Coast (22 Jul) | easing | −6% |
| Freightos FBX Asia–North Europe (22 Jul) | easing | −2% |
| Freightos FBX Asia–Mediterranean (22 Jul) | easing | −4% |
Two caveats on the numbers. Drewry's WCI publishes on Thursdays and the reading for this week had not yet posted at the time of writing, so the $4,547 composite above is the 16 July print carried forward — treat it as the latest published level, not a fresh one. And the transpacific has a hard date on the calendar: the US Section 122 tariff pause was set to expire on 24 July, and the front-loading that drove record June imports is unwinding, with new tariffs reportedly expected in early August.
The Gulf remains the outlier. Clean, current spot prints for the Asia–Jebel Ali lane are hard to come by while the strait is closed — forwarder guides put China–UAE at roughly $4,700–$6,600 per 40ft in July, held flat month on month, but that is an indicative range, not an index. What is firmly documented is the cost of risk: hull war-risk cover for Hormuz voyages is now running 3–10% of vessel value, with about 5% emerging as the norm, per the National and AGBI on 17 July — up from around 0.25% before the crisis, or $3m–$10m per voyage on a $100m ship.
Industry headlines
Yemen's Houthis declare a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. On 20 July the Houthi military spokesman announced an immediate maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia in retaliation for the Yemen blockade and a strike on Sanaa, per Al Jazeera and AP. By 21–22 July at least one Saudi-bound cargo ship had reportedly turned back and tankers with Saudi cargo were diverting — a potential second front alongside Hormuz, on the approaches to Bab el-Mandeb.
The Hormuz reopening has collapsed. June's US–Iran memorandum briefly reopened the strait, but the ceasefire broke down: the US carried out a further round of strikes on Iran on 20 July, Iran attacked a tanker in the strait early on 21 July, and the IRGC re-declared Hormuz closed. Live trackers counted roughly 15 transits on 19 July against a pre-crisis norm near 88 a day, with many vessels going dark on AIS.
Washington widens its shadow-fleet sanctions. On 14 July OFAC expanded designations on the illicit shipping network of Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, naming 50-plus individuals, companies and vessels across the UAE, Singapore, Hong Kong and India, followed on 15 July by seven more over IRGC weapons procurement, per US Treasury and Steptoe's sanctions update. With UAE-based intermediaries repeatedly named, compliance screening on anything Iran-adjacent stays at maximum.
Hapag-Lloyd's $4.2bn takeover of ZIM stays in review. The deal is still progressing toward a late-2026 close at $35.00 a share, but it has drawn Israeli political friction — a carve-out, "New ZIM," is proposed to hold ZIM's golden-share obligations under Israeli ownership. A reminder that carrier consolidation now runs through national-security politics, not just competition review.
Port congestion
Global congestion is elevated, driven this week by the post-Typhoon Bavi backlog clearing through Chinese hubs and rippling into transhipment ports, layered on the Gulf diversion. Figures below are Kuehne+Nagel's 15–21 July port updates and vessel-queue trackers.
| Port | Status / wait | Trend | Source date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeddah | Berth waits 20+ days; yard ~90%; pickup 6–8 weeks | Severe | ~13–19 Jul |
| Khor Fakkan | All 6 berths in use; container ops running; ~4-wk wait for non-container | Strained but managed | wk of 20 Jul |
| Shanghai | Queue jumped 57→129 vessels on 13 Jul reopen; delays up to ~5 days | Recovering | wk of 13 Jul |
| Ningbo | Queue 33→55 vessels; ~2m TEU delayed system-wide | Recovering | wk of 13 Jul |
| Port Klang | Avg wait ~1.6 days; yard 90–95% | Worsening | 15–21 Jul |
| Rotterdam | Avg wait ~1.7 days; high yard density; barge delays | Elevated | 15–21 Jul |
| Singapore | Avg wait ~1.25 days; yard ~80% | Stabilising | 15–21 Jul |
The routing message is Jeddah. As cargo diverts away from Hormuz, Jeddah Islamic Port is badly backed up — productivity down 20–25%, truck queues several kilometres long — and major carriers are omitting it, rerouting to King Abdullah Port, Djibouti and Mundra. Saudi authorities have imposed a 15-day rule requiring in-transit cargo to clear or face penalties, and a Jeddah storage-fee exemption took effect on 19 July. On schedule reliability, the latest published Sea-Intelligence report (for May) put global on-time performance at 64.7%, the best of the year, led by Maersk at 78.2% and the Gemini alliance at 89.5% — a June reading was not yet confirmed from the source at the time of writing.
Gulf & UAE trade
DP World commits to two new terminals outside the strait. The week's most important regional development: on 22 July DP World signed a 50-year concession with the Fujairah Ports Authority to build the Al Rugaylat container and multipurpose terminal — up to 2.5m TEU a year — and the Dibba general-cargo terminal, per the National and DP World's newsroom. The terminals sit on the UAE's east coast, outside Hormuz, and will be networked by road into Jebel Ali and Jafza, lifting DP World's UAE container capacity from about 19.4m to 22m TEU over a phased build. This is the concrete follow-through on the "talks for a new Fujairah port" flagged last week.
Khor Fakkan is doing the heavy lifting now. The east-coast terminal has all six berths working and is absorbing diverted Gulf volumes — weekly container moves have reportedly climbed from around 8,000 before the conflict to as many as 65,000, with Gulftainer pushing its expansion toward a 10m-TEU footprint and rebranding its feeder fleet as GT Lines. Jebel Ali itself, meanwhile, is operating normally per DP World, despite the GFS Galaxy attack outbound from the port a fortnight ago; it remains the anchor the new east-coast capacity will feed.
War-risk cover has repriced up, not down. Premiums that briefly softened under June's memorandum have jumped again after this month's attacks, settling into that 3–10% band. Cover is reportedly still available — but at a number that has to be built into any Gulf quote rather than hoped away.
The Nautica view
The signal this week is that the disruption is broadening, not resolving — a second front toward Saudi Arabia, a collapsed reopening, and war-risk cover repricing higher. Read the two halves of the market for what they are: the mainline east–west trades are cooling, so there is no case for panic booking out of Asia into Europe or the US West Coast. The Gulf is the opposite trade — thin transparency, real risk cost, and space concentrated on the east-coast corridor. Route Gulf cargo through Khor Fakkan and Fujairah, keep Jeddah out of the plan unless you have a firm berth, and price war risk in rather than assuming it lapses. DP World's Fujairah signing tells you where the market is putting its money for the next decade; build your routing on the same assumption, not on a quick strait reopening. Our team is quoting these lanes daily — if your plan needs Hormuz open, bring a second plan.
Sources: Drewry WCI (16 July) and Cancelled Sailings commentary, SCFI via Lloyd's List and TradingEconomics, Freightos (22 July), the National (17 & 22 July), AGBI, Lloyd's List, Al Jazeera, CNBC, AP, US Treasury/OFAC, Steptoe, Windward, DP World newsroom, Maritime Executive, Kuehne+Nagel port updates (15–21 July), Sea-Intelligence (May GLP), Container News, gCaptain, Khaleej Times, Reuters. Every figure is dated to its source; where this week's print was not yet published (Drewry WCI, June schedule reliability) that is noted in the text.